Demographic Transition Model (DTM): Stages of Demographic Transition Model
Stages of Demographic Transition Model
The changes in population growth rates and the effect on population can be shown on the Demographic Transition Model (Population Cycle):
This can be divided into four stages:
Stage 1 - High Fluctuating
Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth
is slow and fluctuating.
- The birth Rate is high as a result of:,
- Lack of family planning
- High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
- Need for workers in agriculture
- Religious beliefs
- Children as economic assets
- The death Rate is high because of:
- High levels of disease
- Famine
- Lack of clean water and sanitation
- Lack of health care
- War
- Competition for food from predators such as rats
- Lack of education
Example: Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least
Economically Developed Countries (LEDCs) today.
Stage 2 - Early Expanding
The birth rate remains high. The death rate is falling. The population begins to rise steadily.
- Death Rate is falling as a result of:
- Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
- Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
- Improved sanitation
- Improved food production and storage
- Improved transport for food
- Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Example: Typical of Britain in the 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria
Stage 3 - Late Expanding
The birth rate starts to fall. The death rate continues to fall.
Population rising.
Reasons:
- Family planning available
- Lower Infant Mortality Rate
- Increased mechanization reduces the need for workers
- Increased standard of living
- Changing status of women
Example: Typical of Britain in the late 19th and early 20th century;
China; Brazil
Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating
The birth Rate and Death Rate are both low. Population steady.
Example: Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain
