Demographic Transition Model

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 Definition of Demographic Transitional Model

The Demographic transition model (DTM) is a model used to represent the process of explaining the transformation of countries from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson  of prior observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years.



Diagram which includes stage five

Most developed countries are beyond stage three of the model; the majority of developing countries are in stage 2 or stage 3. The model was based on the changes seen in Europe so these countries follow the DTM relatively well. Many developing countries have moved into stage 3. The major exceptions are some poor countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and some Middle Eastern countries, which are poor or affected by government policy or civil strife, notably Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Yemen and Afghanistan.

CBR: Crude birth rate is the nativity or childbirths per 1,000 people per year.

According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, crude birth rate is the Number of births over a given period divided by the person-years lived by the population over that period. It is expressed as number of births per 1,000 population.

CBR = (births in a period / population of person-years over that period) x1,000.

CDR: The crude death r. is the ratio of the number of deaths to the total population of an area. The crude death rate, the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people. The crude death rate for the whole world is currently about 8.23 per 1000 per year he crude death rate depends on the age (and gender) specific mortality rates and the age (and gender) distribution of the population. The number of deaths per 1000 people can be higher for developed nations than in less-developed countries, despite life expectancy being higher in developed countries due to standards of health being better. This happens because developed countries typically have a completely different population age distribution, with a much higher proportion of older people, due to both lower recent birth rates and lower mortality rates.

CDR= (death in a period/ population of person-years over that period) x1,000.


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